Soccer betting tips, evolution of predictions and the first Poisson method

Website design By BotEap.comBetting tips help you predict the correct result of the football match to place a bet. The most popular tips are statistical predictions. Poisson’s method is the oldest and best known prediction method in the literature.

Website design By BotEap.comThis article summarizes the Poisson method for soccer prediction, its advantages and disadvantages.

Website design By BotEap.comStatistical football prediction methods mostly began to appear in the early 1990s, but the first (and by far the most famous) method was published by Moroney in 1956. According to this method, football match results football can be successfully modeled as random observations drawn from Poisson. Probability distribution. Let x and y represent the number of goals scored by the home and away teams respectively. Thus, by Poisson’s method, x and y are random variables, each of which comes from its own independent Poisson distribution. The Poisson distribution function is different for each team.

Website design By BotEap.comThe function has its own parameters (ie in the Poisson case), which define the expected number of goals scored by the opponents. Once the parameters of the distribution function are correctly estimated, the matching result can be successfully predicted. It is clear that when estimated empirically, the parameters of any function include some error due to the limited number of observations. Thus, football match predictions are often wrong. This estimation error defines the confidence intervals assigned to the predicted number of goals.

Website design By BotEap.comThe main advantage of the Poisson model is its ability to predict the expected number of goals. It is kept for almost all football tournaments. Also, the estimate of the mean of the Poisson distribution is usually based on all historical matches played during a specific tournament, which makes the estimate reliable.

Website design By BotEap.comHowever, this method has many disadvantages. Predict the scores of each team independently, without taking into account the strength of the opposing team; It does not distinguish between the attacking and defending abilities of teams and does not consider the time-dependent changes of these abilities; Also, it does not address the influence of home court advantage on the final result.

Website design By BotEap.comAll those drawbacks gave rise to new developments based on this method. Newer methods distinguish between the attacking and defensive strengths of teams, consider the strength of the opposing team, and take home-field advantage into account. We will discuss these developments in our next articles on the evolution of soccer statistical predictions.